Doug Ford Wins Third, Consecutive, Majority Government in Ontario

Key Takeaways

• Breakdown of MPPs as of this morning: PC: 80, NDP: 27, Liberal: 14, Greens: 2, IND: 1

• Ontario liberals remain leaderless in the Ontario legislature  

• Voter turnout reached 45.40%, an unexpected small increase from the 2022 election.

Doug Ford and the Ontario PC Party are headed back to Queen’s Park with a third majority mandate. Ford secured the first consecutive triple majority since the 1950s, with major figures in Ford’s pre-election cabinet — Minister Jill Dunlop, Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria, Minister Caroline Mulroney, Minister Sylvia Jones and Minister Stephen Lecce among them — all returning to the Legislature.  

Yesterday's results reaffirmed the Premier’s leadership and showcased the challenges faced by opposition parties in shifting the electoral narrative.

Seat Changes

With Ford’s win being called within five minutes, the question quickly became about who would form Official Opposition. While the Liberals regained official party status, Marit Stiles and the NDP retained their role as the second party in the Legislature, despite facing setbacks from Liberal gains. The NDP hold on to Official Opposition status and will likely secure Marit Stiles role as NDP Leader as she was effective in holding off the Liberals’ attempts at framing the NDP as “out of the race” to pull their vote.  

It was clear this election that the PCs were the strongest in both the “air war” and ground game. When it came to the Liberals and NDP, we saw that Bonnie Crombie was much stronger than Stiles in getting her message out through the media as the Liberals increased their vote share to around 30%, something Crombie plugged in her speech to supporters last night. However, it’s clear the NDP had the stronger ground game as the Liberals lacked the efficiency to translate that vote share to seats, leaving them in third place.

Although the Liberals made gains in seat count, Crombie’s failure to win her own riding presents a serious challenge to her leadership. While she expressed her intention to stay on as leader, the Liberals are now in a challenging position. Without having a seat in the legislature, Crombie will face significant obstacles in effectively leading her caucus and demonstrating to Ontarians she is able to hold the government accountable at Queen’s Park.

While the PCs hold a strong majority, we saw some trade-offs between ridings, including the Liberals defeating Tory incumbents in Ajax and Etobicoke – Lakeshore, and the PCs winning Hamilton Mountain from the NDP.

Despite the February election – Ontario’s first winter election in more than 40 years – voter turnout was slightly higher than the 2022 Spring election. Doug Ford’s message of economic security and strong leadership in the face of external threats clearly resonated with voters, with turnout demonstrating that Ontarians know what is at stake and trust Premier Ford to champion Ontario and Ontarians for four more years.

With U.S. tariff threats looming and a federal election on the horizon, what’s coming next for Ontario? Read our full analysis to get all the insights here.