Sussex Overview & Analysis: Ontario Fall Economic Statement 2023

Building a Stronger Ontario Together: Ontario Fall Economic Statement 2023

This afternoon, Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, Ontario’s Minister of Finance, tabled the 2023 Fall Economic Statement (FES), titled Building a Stronger Ontario Together. Typically, a FES in the second year of a government’s second mandate would be a quiet affair – largely updating progress on the government’s policy agenda.

Given economic headwinds and the recent controversy around the greenbelt, the government has chosen to focus on its historical strengths, rather than a generic pivot.  

The new announcements in the FES largely double down on infrastructure and economic development. The headline announcements are an arms-length Ontario Infrastructure Bank, coupled with an increase in the Invest Ontario Fund, enhanced flow-through tax measures for mining exploration (particularly critical minerals) and money allocated to water infrastructure to support further housing development.  

There were also the affordability measures announced earlier this week including the extension of a gas tax cut to June 2024 and the removal of the provincial portion of the HST on purpose-built rental housing.

Global financial challenges are influencing Ontario, as the government is projecting a provincial deficit of $5.6 billion, quadruple the $1.3 billion deficit forecast in March 2023. This worsened fiscal position is largely attributed to a drop in tax revenues because of less robust economic growth than forecast.

Overall, this FES is both a continuation of the government’s economic development and growth policy agenda with limited spending increases and spending cuts largely absent. The government is taking the opportunity to talk about its policy agenda, rather than answering questions about the Greenbelt. While there are measures to help individuals with the ongoing affordability crisis, the focus in this FES is to remind people of an area of strength for the Ford government – attracting business and investment, particularly in the auto manufacturing and EV battery sector – and to roll out some new measures intended to amplify this strength.

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