2025 Ontario Budget. Finance Minister Unveils Plan to Protect Ontario.

What You Need to Know
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The Ford Government remains focused on protecting Ontario against geopolitical challenges with President Trump by supporting economic growth and job creation.

• Tariff relief remains the government’s top priority with $11.9 billion in cost savings to businesses.
• Economic and Fiscal outlook projections are lower than Budget 2024 projections, with the government not balancing the budget until 2027-2028.
• Support for workers, businesses, and communities to weather the storm is a key theme in Budget 2025.
• Billions of dollars in new funding for critical minerals, housing, health care, and infrastructure.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.5 per cent. Real GDP is projected to rise. However, forecasts are lower than what was projected in the 2024 budget due to US trade policies. Real GDP will rise to 0.8 per cent in 2025, followed by increases of 1.0 per cent in 2026 and of 1.9 per cent in 2027 and 2028.
• Nominal GDP is also projected to increase at a slower pace than projected in Budget 2024.
• The government has pushed out its projections to return to surplus by one year to 2027-2028. The fiscal outlook projected in Budget 2025 includes:
  • Interim 2024–2025: deficit of $6.0 billion.
  • 2025-2026: deficit of $14.6 billion.
  • 2026-2027: deficit of $7.8 billion.
  • 2027-2028: surplus of $0.2 billion.
• While in 2024–25 total revenue outlook is projected to be $221.6 billion, $13.4 billion higher than projected in the 2024 Budget, revenue projections for the medium term are lower than forecast in the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
• In 2024–25, program expense outlook is $212.4 billion, $11.8 billion higher than in the 2024 Budget. The government’s program expense is projected to grow from $195.2 billion in 2023–24 to $217.9 billion in 2027–28.
• Ontario is forecast to pay $15.2 billion in interest costs in 2024–25, which is less than the 2024 Budget forecast due to lower than projected borrowing costs. However, the government’s expenses for interest and other debt servicing charges are projected to increase from $14.5 billion in 2023–24 to $17.8 billion in 2027–28. The net debt‐to‐GDP ratio in 2024–25 is forecast to be 2.9 percentage points lower than in the 2024 Budget.
• Ontario is retaining its strategy of keeping a Contingency Fund to protect fiscal integrity against unexpected economic risks. The Contingency Fund in 2025–26 is set at $3.0 billion and is forecast to expand in the future. The Budget also proposes setting a reserve fund of $2.0 billion each year from 2025–26 to 2027-28.

What does a $232.5B budget mean for Ontario? From tariff relief to critical minerals, read our full expert analysis for all the details here