Quebec Election 2026: Is the PQ on the Verge of a Majority Government?

With one week remaining before election day, the Parti Québécois (PQ) remains the party best positioned to form Quebec’s next government. Its strong lead among francophone voters continues to provide a significant advantage in the seat count, although uncertainty remains regarding the size of that lead and whether it will translate into a parliamentary majority. At this stage, a PQ victory appears to be the most likely outcome, with both majority and minority government scenarios remaining plausible.

The most significant development of recent days has been the continued decline of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). After eight years in office, the party has struggled to rebuild the electoral coalition that first brought François Legault to power in 2018. At the same time, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has gained momentum and strengthened its position as the principal federalist alternative, while the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) continues to expand its support among voters concerned about the cost of living, taxation and the size of government. This realignment of the centre-right electorate appears to be hurting the CAQ far more than the PQ.

Meanwhile, issues related to Donald Trump and U.S. tariffs, which dominated the early phase of the campaign, have gradually faded from public attention. Voters are once again focused on traditional provincial concerns such as public services, government management, affordability and economic growth. The election has increasingly become a referendum on the CAQ’s eight years in government.

For businesses, the key question is no longer whether the PQ can win, but rather what a government led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon would look like. While the PQ leader has worked throughout the campaign to present himself as a credible future premier focused on governing effectively, Quebec sovereignty remains a central component of the party’s long-term vision. Notably, the PQ has committed to creating a Ministry of Quebec Sovereignty, whose mandate would be to advance the political, economic and institutional conditions required to increase Quebec’s autonomy and ultimately prepare the province for independence.

From an economic perspective, a PQ government could represent a more significant departure from the CAQ’s approach than many observers initially expected. While the outgoing government relied heavily on subsidies, Investissement Québec and direct financial assistance to businesses, the PQ is proposing a gradual reduction in corporate income taxes while generating several billion dollars in savings through a substantial reduction in discretionary business subsidies. The party also places greater emphasis on local value-added processing, Quebec-based supply chains and maximizing economic benefits within the province. Companies that rely heavily on government support programs should therefore monitor these commitments closely.