Prime Minister Trudeau Shuffles His Cabinet Ahead of Fall Parliamentary Session and Potential 2024 Election

This morning at Rideau Hall, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a major shuffle of his Cabinet, the largest overhaul since coming to government in 2015. This change comes almost two years since the Liberals were re-elected with a minority government in September 2021 and was clearly done with the next campaign in mind.

Despite a confidence and supply agreement with the New Democrats, speculation remains that a federal election may occur within the next calendar year – certainly before the end of 2024. The shuffle also comes on the heels of a bruising parliamentary session that saw the Liberals and Conservatives spar over inflation and cost-of-living issues as well as calls for a national inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s elections.

Cabinet Ministers who underperformed in this heated environment have been moved to smaller portfolios or out of Cabinet altogether. The shuffle was also an opportunity to remove from Cabinet the Members of Parliament who will not run in the next election, opening their positions up to MPs who will benefit electorally from the heightened profile.

The new Cabinet features seven rookies and only eight Ministers retained the portfolios they held previously. Cabinet remains at 39 members plus the Prime Minister and has maintained overall gender parity.

Although much of the Prime Minister’s Cabinet has been revamped, some steady hands and operators remain in place on key files.

What Happens Next

‍The shuffle presents both opportunity and risk to organizations actively engaging with the government. Some organizations will have to pivot and engage with new Ministers and new staff on priority files. Although this risks causing minor delays, it should also be viewed as an opportunity to meet with new Ministers and staff with fresh perspectives to better advance objectives.

Sussex will be engaging with current and new ministerial staff to ensure a smooth handover of priority files. We expect a very busy parliamentary session to close out 2023 in advance of a potential, and indeed likely, election in 2024.

Read more for the full summary and analysis.